Article 12418

Title of the article

MONITORING AND PREDICTING THE STATE OF HIGHLY RESPONSIBLE SYSTEMS 

Authors

Abramov Oleg Vasil'evich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, honored worker of science of Russia, head of laboratory of complex systems reliability management, Institute for Automation and Control processes, Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (690041, 5 Radio Street, Vladivostok, Russia), E-mail: abramov@iacp.dvo.ru 

Index UDK

519.87 

DOI

10.21685/2307-4205-2018-4-12 

Abstract

One of the possible statements of the problem of planning of operation of the controlled engineering systems arising in the framework of the functionalparametric direction of the risk theory is considered. It is shown that on the basis of the proposed recurrent algorithms
of minimax estimation (prediction) of the technical condition with the use of the idea of ellipsoidal estimation it is possible to implement a strategy of technogenic risk management. The proposed approach makes it possible to make prediction even with a small number of parameters measurements, does not require information about the stochastic properties of measurement errors and other noise, has adaptive properties. It is most advisable to use it when planning the operation of complex systems of responsible purpose, failures which are associated with large material losses or catastrophic consequences. 

Key words

technogenic risk, parameter, working capacity, engineering system, measurements, state estimation, prediction, operation 

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Дата создания: 04.03.2019 10:42
Дата обновления: 05.03.2019 09:53